Bellwethercmksons-aicompany.com/tools/bellwether/

Bellwether Sales Management

Pipeline coverage and forecast attainment for revenue leaders. A bellwether is the animal at the front of the flock. The one you watch to know where the rest is going.

“Are we going to make the number?” The odds, not a point estimate, and how often you actually reach the weighted figure your CRM (the customer relationship management system your pipeline lives in) reports.
“How much pipeline do we need?” The coverage multiple measured from your own win rates, next to the 3× rule so you can see whether it fits you.
“What would actually move it?” Each lever re-simulated with the target held fixed, so a gain is measured rather than claimed.

Free. No signup. Your figures never leave your browser: Copy link carries them inside the link itself, so they reach no server and go only where you send it. Two things do leave: what you type into the chat bubble, and a file you ask to be emailed after a download.

The quarter you are forecasting

These settings are read by every tab

One target, one period, one seed, so no two pages can be forecasting different quarters.

The seed fixes the random sequence, so the same pipeline always gives the same forecast. Change it to see how much of what you are looking at is sampling noise.

The pipeline

Showing a sample pipeline so you can see how it works. Type over it, or paste your own.
AMOUNT The bookings value you would recognise for the period, not total contract value over three years, unless that is genuinely what lands in this quarter.
WIN % The number everything here rests on. Use your historic won/lost rate from that stage, not the rep’s confidence. If Proposal converts 45% of the time across your last hundred deals, every Proposal deal is 45, even the one everyone feels good about.
WEEKS OUT When you expect it to close, counted from today. Anything beyond the period length is excluded from the forecast and listed as a lever instead.
STAGE A label only. The tool never assumes it knows what your stages mean. It is used for grouping and for keeping names consistent.
WHERE TO GET IT Any CRM will export these columns. In Salesforce: Opportunity Name, Account Name, Amount, Stage, Probability, Close Date, then turn the date into weeks from now.
DO NOT ROUND EVERYTHING TO 50% If every deal is a coin flip the forecast is just a count of your pipeline. The spread between stages is what makes the distribution mean anything.
Dealid
Account
AmountUSD
Stage
Win%
Weeksfrom now

One deal per line: id | account | amount | stage | win % | weeks out. This box and the rows above are the same data. Editing either updates the other.

The forecast

How much pipeline you actually need

Measured from your own win rates, not from a rule of thumb

Each level is found by simulating a pipeline shaped like yours, scaled until it clears the target that often.

Analysis & Recommendation

What would move the number, and what each move is measured to be worth

This updates on its own whenever you change anything on the other tabs. It is never showing you advice about a pipeline you have already changed.

Definitions

 

Ticked entries re-derive their own result at page load, independently of the engine, and compare. A definition nobody verifies is only a comment.

Bellwether · a CMK Sons Labs operations tool · everything computed in your browser